World Cup 2026 · Matchday 5 · Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Win: United States
7.9%
90% CI: 3.7–13.3
Draw
15.3%
90% CI: 9.3–21.8
Win: Belgium
76.7%
90% CI: 65.3–86.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
United States
xG 0.62
0
54.4%
43.5%–64.8%
1
32.7%
28.1%–36.2%
2
10.2%
6.1%–15.1%
3+
2.6%
1.0%–5.2%
Belgium
xG 2.44
0
9.5%
4.2%–16.4%
1
21.6%
13.3%–29.6%
2
25.3%
21.1%–27.1%
3+
43.6%
27.2%–61.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: United States, draw, Win: Belgium — shaded by likelihood.
|
United States
|
Belgium
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 |
| Goals 1 | 3.1 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals 2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.