World Cup 2026 · Matchday 6 · Friday, July 10, 2026
Win: Spain
27.4%
90% CI: 16.5–40.0
Draw
24.1%
90% CI: 19.7–28.2
Win: Belgium
48.5%
90% CI: 34.4–63.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Spain
xG 1.18
0
31.5%
20.7%–43.1%
1
35.7%
32.6%–36.8%
2
20.9%
15.3%–25.7%
3+
11.9%
5.4%–21.0%
Belgium
xG 1.66
0
19.9%
11.0%–30.4%
1
31.2%
24.3%–36.2%
2
25.4%
21.5%–27.1%
3+
23.5%
11.8%–37.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Spain, draw, Win: Belgium — shaded by likelihood.
|
Spain
|
Belgium
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.