World Cup 2026 · Matchday 8 · Saturday, July 18, 2026
Win: France
38.8%
90% CI: 27.3–51.7
Draw
29.3%
90% CI: 24.9–34.0
Win: England
31.9%
90% CI: 21.5–43.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
France
xG 1.15
0
32.5%
21.0%–44.5%
1
35.7%
32.8%–36.8%
2
20.4%
14.6%–25.6%
3+
11.4%
4.9%–20.6%
England
xG 1.01
0
37.1%
25.8%–48.3%
1
36.2%
34.3%–36.8%
2
18.2%
12.8%–23.7%
3+
8.5%
3.7%–15.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: France, draw, Win: England — shaded by likelihood.
|
France
|
England
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Goals 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.