The Soccer Factor Model
Bayesian statistics meets the beautiful game: football.
Covering Europe's top five leagues
SFMMO — who wins
Win / draw / loss and the most likely scoreline for every fixture, plus league tables, expected final points and the title race — 117 fixtures forecast right now.
Match forecasts
SFM — who scores
Goal-scoring probabilities for 599 players in the upcoming round, drawn from a universe of 3191 — with skill ratings that separate a player's own ability from the team around him.
Player forecastsBeat the SFMMO
Call a matchday before the model shows its hand. Its forecast stays hidden until you save your picks — then you see what it said, and how you compare once the results land. No stakes, no money; just whether you were right.
Play this matchdayFree account
Premier League and Bundesliga are open to everyone. An account adds Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, every matchday rather than just the next one, and lets you play.
Sign up — it's freeAlso on iPhone
The same forecasts, your watchlists and Play in your pocket — with a reminder before picks close and your result when the matchday ends.
Get it on the App Store