Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Friday, August 28, 2026
Win: Bayern Munich
69.1%
90% CI: 65.8–72.3
Draw
18.3%
90% CI: 16.8–19.8
Win: VfB Stuttgart
12.6%
90% CI: 10.8–14.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Bayern Munich
xG 2.38
0
9.3%
7.8%–10.9%
1
22.1%
20.0%–24.1%
2
26.2%
25.4%–26.8%
3+
42.4%
38.2%–46.8%
VfB Stuttgart
xG 0.93
0
39.6%
36.5%–42.7%
1
36.6%
36.3%–36.8%
2
17.0%
15.4%–18.6%
3+
6.8%
5.5%–8.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Bayern Munich, draw, Win: VfB Stuttgart — shaded by likelihood.
| Bayern Munich | VfB Stuttgart | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.