Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 29, 2026
Win: Elversberg
20.6%
90% CI: 6.9–39.2
Draw
22.5%
90% CI: 12.7–30.6
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
56.9%
90% CI: 33.7–80.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Elversberg
xG 1.06
0
36.5%
18.7%–54.2%
1
35.1%
30.5%–36.8%
2
18.4%
10.2%–26.2%
3+
10.0%
2.4%–23.7%
Bayer Leverkusen
xG 1.97
0
16.3%
4.5%–31.8%
1
27.4%
14.0%–36.4%
2
24.9%
19.1%–27.1%
3+
31.5%
10.9%–59.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Elversberg, draw, Win: Bayer Leverkusen — shaded by likelihood.
| Elversberg | Bayer Leverkusen | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | Goals 9 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.