Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 29, 2026
Win: RB Leipzig
61.3%
90% CI: 57.0–65.5
Draw
21.9%
90% CI: 20.1–23.6
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
16.9%
90% CI: 14.2–19.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
RB Leipzig
xG 2.02
0
13.3%
11.1%–15.6%
1
26.7%
24.4%–29.0%
2
27.0%
26.8%–27.1%
3+
33.0%
28.5%–37.7%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG 0.97
0
38.0%
34.2%–41.7%
1
36.7%
36.5%–36.8%
2
17.8%
15.9%–19.7%
3+
7.5%
5.9%–9.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: RB Leipzig, draw, Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach — shaded by likelihood.
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.