Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 29, 2026
Win: Mainz 05
63.6%
90% CI: 56.3–70.6
Draw
21.8%
90% CI: 18.6–24.9
Win: Paderborn
14.6%
90% CI: 10.5–19.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Mainz 05
xG 1.99
0
13.9%
10.1%–18.1%
1
27.2%
23.1%–30.9%
2
26.9%
26.2%–27.1%
3+
32.1%
24.6%–40.3%
Paderborn
xG 0.84
0
43.3%
36.4%–50.4%
1
36.0%
34.5%–36.8%
2
15.2%
11.8%–18.6%
3+
5.5%
3.2%–8.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Mainz 05, draw, Win: Paderborn — shaded by likelihood.
| Mainz 05 | Paderborn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.