Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 29, 2026
Win: Union Berlin
41.8%
90% CI: 36.9–46.9
Draw
27.4%
90% CI: 26.0–28.8
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
30.9%
90% CI: 26.6–35.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Union Berlin
xG 1.43
0
24.1%
20.4%–28.0%
1
34.2%
32.4%–35.6%
2
24.3%
22.7%–25.8%
3+
17.3%
13.7%–21.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt
xG 1.19
0
30.5%
26.7%–34.4%
1
36.1%
35.3%–36.7%
2
21.5%
19.6%–23.3%
3+
11.9%
9.3%–14.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Union Berlin, draw, Win: Eintracht Frankfurt — shaded by likelihood.
| Union Berlin | Eintracht Frankfurt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.