Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 29, 2026
Win: 1. FC Köln
32.3%
90% CI: 28.5–36.1
Draw
25.4%
90% CI: 24.5–26.4
Win: Hoffenheim
42.3%
90% CI: 38.2–46.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
1. FC Köln
xG 1.37
0
25.5%
22.5%–28.5%
1
34.8%
33.6%–35.8%
2
23.8%
22.4%–25.0%
3+
16.0%
13.2%–18.9%
Hoffenheim
xG 1.60
0
20.3%
17.7%–23.0%
1
32.3%
30.7%–33.8%
2
25.8%
24.8%–26.5%
3+
21.6%
18.4%–25.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: 1. FC Köln, draw, Win: Hoffenheim — shaded by likelihood.
| 1. FC Köln | Hoffenheim | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.