Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 29, 2026
Win: Borussia Dortmund
66.1%
90% CI: 62.5–69.6
Draw
20.2%
90% CI: 18.6–21.8
Win: Hamburger SV
13.7%
90% CI: 11.7–15.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Borussia Dortmund
xG 2.16
0
11.6%
9.8%–13.4%
1
24.9%
22.8%–27.0%
2
26.8%
26.4%–27.1%
3+
36.7%
32.5%–41.0%
Hamburger SV
xG 0.88
0
41.4%
38.3%–44.5%
1
36.5%
36.0%–36.8%
2
16.1%
14.6%–17.7%
3+
6.0%
4.9%–7.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Borussia Dortmund, draw, Win: Hamburger SV — shaded by likelihood.
| Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.