Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Sunday, August 30, 2026
Win: Freiburg
44.2%
90% CI: 40.4–48.0
Draw
24.9%
90% CI: 24.0–25.8
Win: Werder Bremen
30.9%
90% CI: 27.7–34.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Freiburg
xG 1.68
0
18.7%
16.3%–21.2%
1
31.3%
29.6%–32.9%
2
26.2%
25.5%–26.8%
3+
23.8%
20.4%–27.3%
Werder Bremen
xG 1.37
0
25.3%
22.8%–28.0%
1
34.7%
33.7%–35.6%
2
23.9%
22.7%–24.9%
3+
16.1%
13.7%–18.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Freiburg, draw, Win: Werder Bremen — shaded by likelihood.
| Freiburg | Werder Bremen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | |||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.