Bundesliga · Matchday 1 · Sunday, August 30, 2026
Win: Augsburg
49.1%
90% CI: 44.7–53.4
Draw
27.0%
90% CI: 25.4–28.4
Win: Schalke 04
24.0%
90% CI: 20.9–27.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Augsburg
xG 1.53
0
21.7%
18.6%–24.9%
1
33.1%
31.3%–34.6%
2
25.3%
24.1%–26.3%
3+
19.9%
16.4%–23.8%
Schalke 04
xG 0.99
0
37.1%
33.8%–40.3%
1
36.7%
36.6%–36.8%
2
18.3%
16.7%–19.9%
3+
8.0%
6.4%–9.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Augsburg, draw, Win: Schalke 04 — shaded by likelihood.
| Augsburg | Schalke 04 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.