Premier League · Matchday 1 · Friday, August 21, 2026
Win: Arsenal
77.3%
90% CI: 55.7–93.5
Draw
14.8%
90% CI: 4.8–26.0
Win: Coventry City
7.9%
90% CI: 1.5–18.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Arsenal
xG 2.73
0
8.7%
1.4%–20.7%
1
19.2%
5.9%–32.6%
2
22.8%
12.6%–27.0%
3+
49.3%
21.1%–80.2%
Coventry City
xG 0.69
0
51.5%
33.9%–67.3%
1
33.1%
26.7%–36.7%
2
11.7%
5.3%–19.9%
3+
3.8%
0.8%–9.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Arsenal, draw, Win: Coventry City — shaded by likelihood.
| Arsenal | Coventry City | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 10 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 12 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.