Premier League · Matchday 1 · Monday, August 24, 2026
Win: Fulham
31.1%
90% CI: 28.1–34.3
Draw
28.0%
90% CI: 27.1–28.9
Win: Chelsea
40.9%
90% CI: 37.6–44.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Fulham
xG 1.16
0
31.4%
28.4%–34.3%
1
36.3%
35.8%–36.7%
2
21.1%
19.6%–22.5%
3+
11.3%
9.3%–13.3%
Chelsea
xG 1.37
0
25.5%
23.1%–28.0%
1
34.8%
33.8%–35.6%
2
23.8%
22.7%–24.8%
3+
15.9%
13.7%–18.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Fulham, draw, Win: Chelsea — shaded by likelihood.
| Fulham | Chelsea | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.6 | 13.3 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.