Premier League · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 22, 2026
Win: Hull City
17.2%
90% CI: 13.9–20.9
Draw
23.7%
90% CI: 21.6–25.8
Win: Manchester United
59.0%
90% CI: 53.7–64.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Hull City
xG 0.88
0
41.6%
36.7%–46.6%
1
36.4%
35.6%–36.8%
2
16.0%
13.6%–18.4%
3+
6.0%
4.2%–8.1%
Manchester United
xG 1.82
0
16.3%
13.3%–19.4%
1
29.4%
26.9%–31.8%
2
26.7%
26.1%–27.1%
3+
27.6%
22.7%–32.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Hull City, draw, Win: Manchester United — shaded by likelihood.
| Hull City | Manchester United | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.3 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.