Premier League · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 22, 2026
Win: Everton
45.7%
90% CI: 41.9–49.4
Draw
27.8%
90% CI: 26.6–29.0
Win: Crystal Palace
26.5%
90% CI: 23.5–29.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Everton
xG 1.44
0
23.8%
21.1%–26.5%
1
34.1%
32.8%–35.2%
2
24.5%
23.4%–25.5%
3+
17.6%
14.9%–20.6%
Crystal Palace
xG 1.04
0
35.6%
32.3%–38.9%
1
36.7%
36.5%–36.8%
2
19.0%
17.3%–20.6%
3+
8.7%
7.0%–10.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Everton, draw, Win: Crystal Palace — shaded by likelihood.
| Everton | Crystal Palace | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.