Premier League · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 22, 2026
Win: Ipswich Town
32.4%
90% CI: 25.6–39.6
Draw
28.6%
90% CI: 26.6–30.8
Win: Sunderland
38.9%
90% CI: 32.0–46.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Ipswich Town
xG 1.15
0
32.0%
25.2%–38.9%
1
36.2%
34.7%–36.8%
2
20.8%
17.3%–23.9%
3+
11.1%
7.0%–16.1%
Sunderland
xG 1.29
0
27.9%
22.4%–33.6%
1
35.4%
33.5%–36.6%
2
22.7%
20.0%–25.1%
3+
14.0%
9.8%–19.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Ipswich Town, draw, Win: Sunderland — shaded by likelihood.
| Ipswich Town | Sunderland | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.4 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.