Premier League · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 22, 2026
Win: Nottingham Forest
50.8%
90% CI: 43.8–58.1
Draw
24.3%
90% CI: 22.1–26.5
Win: Leeds United
24.8%
90% CI: 19.5–30.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Nottingham Forest
xG 1.79
0
16.9%
12.8%–21.5%
1
29.9%
26.4%–33.1%
2
26.5%
25.4%–27.1%
3+
26.7%
20.0%–33.7%
Leeds United
xG 1.19
0
30.6%
25.5%–35.8%
1
36.1%
34.9%–36.8%
2
21.4%
18.9%–23.8%
3+
11.9%
8.5%–15.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Nottingham Forest, draw, Win: Leeds United — shaded by likelihood.
| Nottingham Forest | Leeds United | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.