Premier League · Matchday 1 · Saturday, August 22, 2026
Win: Brentford
49.1%
90% CI: 43.6–54.6
Draw
24.5%
90% CI: 22.9–26.1
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
26.4%
90% CI: 22.1–31.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brentford
xG 1.76
0
17.3%
14.1%–20.7%
1
30.2%
27.6%–32.6%
2
26.5%
25.7%–27.1%
3+
26.0%
21.0%–31.3%
Tottenham Hotspur
xG 1.24
0
29.0%
25.1%–33.0%
1
35.8%
34.7%–36.6%
2
22.2%
20.3%–24.0%
3+
13.0%
10.1%–16.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brentford, draw, Win: Tottenham Hotspur — shaded by likelihood.
| Brentford | Tottenham Hotspur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.