Premier League · Matchday 1 · Sunday, August 23, 2026
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
42.8%
90% CI: 38.3–47.3
Draw
27.4%
90% CI: 26.1–28.6
Win: Aston Villa
29.9%
90% CI: 26.0–33.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG 1.44
0
23.8%
20.5%–27.2%
1
34.1%
32.5%–35.4%
2
24.5%
23.0%–25.7%
3+
17.6%
14.3%–21.2%
Aston Villa
xG 1.16
0
31.4%
27.9%–35.0%
1
36.3%
35.6%–36.7%
2
21.1%
19.3%–22.7%
3+
11.2%
9.0%–13.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Brighton & Hove Albion, draw, Win: Aston Villa — shaded by likelihood.
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Aston Villa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.