Premier League · Matchday 1 · Sunday, August 23, 2026
Win: Manchester City
65.0%
90% CI: 60.8–69.2
Draw
19.9%
90% CI: 18.1–21.6
Win: AFC Bournemouth
15.1%
90% CI: 12.5–17.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Manchester City
xG 2.24
0
10.7%
8.7%–12.8%
1
23.8%
21.3%–26.3%
2
26.6%
26.0%–27.0%
3+
38.9%
33.9%–44.0%
AFC Bournemouth
xG 1.00
0
37.0%
33.2%–40.8%
1
36.7%
36.5%–36.8%
2
18.3%
16.4%–20.2%
3+
8.0%
6.2%–10.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Manchester City, draw, Win: AFC Bournemouth — shaded by likelihood.
| Manchester City | AFC Bournemouth | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.