Premier League · Matchday 1 · Sunday, August 23, 2026
Win: Newcastle United
31.3%
90% CI: 28.2–34.4
Draw
26.4%
90% CI: 25.6–27.3
Win: Liverpool
42.3%
90% CI: 39.0–45.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Newcastle United
xG 1.27
0
28.2%
25.5%–31.0%
1
35.7%
34.8%–36.3%
2
22.6%
21.2%–23.8%
3+
13.6%
11.4%–15.9%
Liverpool
xG 1.51
0
22.1%
19.9%–24.4%
1
33.3%
32.2%–34.4%
2
25.1%
24.3%–25.9%
3+
19.4%
16.9%–22.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Newcastle United, draw, Win: Liverpool — shaded by likelihood.
| Newcastle United | Liverpool | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | |||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.