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The Soccer Factor Model (SFM)

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

📝 Recap: What is the SFM?

📊 Inspired by the financial literature on #assetpricing and #performance attribution, the SFM is a Bayesian regression model for player #skill evaluation. By its current – and original – design, the model predicts a #football (#soccer) player’s probability of scoring a certain number of goals in his team’s upcoming match.

What can you find on the Website?

👉 Real-time and historical scoring probabilities for hundreds of strikers in Europe’s top leagues.

👉 Upon popular request we have now added #ligue1 to the stack of originally covered leagues: #premierleague, #bundesliga, #seriea, #laliga.

Updated Weekly

⏰ The website will be updated every Tuesday throughout the regular football season with the latest predictions for each league’s upcoming matchday.

Future Outlook

🚧 The project is ongoing work in progress, and we might add additional features – and eventually models – in the future.

📝 We’re grateful for any type of suggestions, request, or inquiries. Feel free to reach out directly, or via the contact form on the website.

SFM Resources

Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.

The Dashboard on Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.

#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha


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