⚽️It’s Friday! And that means, a weekend full of European soccer ahead!
And what a weekend that is: after some of the clubs return from their European matches during the week, some classics are awaiting us!
🇪🇸 La Liga
The arguably most thrilling and glamorous match takes place on Sunday: El Clásico when Real Madrid hosts FC Barcelona!
And this time again, the two clubs pay tribute to the match’s standing: the Madrilenes are sitting at the top of the table, only two points ahead of the second placed Catalans.
Long gone are the days when it was Mourinho vs. Guardiola, Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Messi, Sergio Ramos vs. Piqué (or even further back to the greats of Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Raùl, Zidane... too little space to list them all!).
Enough history! How does the SFM see the probabilities of the clubs’ forwards scoring this weekend?
So far, the number of goals scored by the home team’s forwards has been quite narrowly distributed, with Kylian Mbappé and Vinicius Junior having scored 15 out of the 16 goals of Real Madrid’s strikers. For the Clásico, the SFM’s median prediction of each player leaving the pitch without a goal sits at around 66%, respectively 68%.
On the opposite, Barcelona’s roster of strikers shows a more equal distribution of goals scored so far. Both, Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres, have so far celebrated four times. While the former attributes a median probability of scoring twice (!) at almost 10%, Ferran Torres might stay at his current score with a probability of about 77%.
🇮🇹 Lega Serie A
With the Serie A currently being probably the most thrilling leagues of all (five teams within three points at the top of the ladder!), the Italian top league has the warm-up for Sunday’s Clásico, with another classic waiting already on Saturday: at the foot of the Vesuvio, it is FC Internazionale Milano @ SSC Napoli!
And, oh boy, what a week that has been for the Neapolitans! First, the disappointing loss against Torino last week, and then a devastating shootout by the PSV Eindhoven during the week!
Nevertheless, hope is there for the scolded soul of the tifosi of the Società Sportiva Calcio Napoli: top forward Rasmus Hoejlund is projected to find the back of the net with about a one-in-three chance! Inter’s Marcus Thuram, in contrast, is projected to do the same with about a one-in-four chance only!
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
Lastly a quick glance at France, where – similar to the Serie A – five teams are sitting at the top of the ladder, separated by only three points.
First placed Olympique Marseille travels all the way north to fourth placed – though just two points shy – RC Lens.
For the home team, the SFM sets the chance of Number 10, Florian Thauvin, to score at least once at about 33%, while Marseille’s top scorer, Mason Greenwood, might travel back home without adding another goal to his current score of 6 with a probability of about 75%. According to the SFM, though, the more likely candidate to keep Marseille at the top of the ladder is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has found the back of the net three times so far.
SFM Coverage
That’s this week’s wrap of the – subjectively – most interesting matches this weekend.
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.
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