Preview Serie A

SFM Preview

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

SFM Preview

⚽️ It’s only Tuesday, but the Serie A is not sleeping! While the other leagues are on hold until the weekend, the Italian top league resumes already today.

🇮🇹 Serie A

After a courageous performance on Saturday, the SSC Napoli regained the spot at the top of the ladder, though by only a tiny margin over second placed AS Roma and AC Milan.

The Rossonieri will face a tough match at Atalanta Bergamo Tuesday night, before hosting the Giallorossi at home on Sunday.


Atalanta BergamovsAC Milan

For Ademola Lookman, it has been a difficult season so far. The SFM sees him to stay once again without a goal with a median probability of more than 70%. Charles De Ketelaere is instead the most likely candidate to put Atalanta onto the scoring board.

On the other side, Rafael Leao has had a good run lately, with three goals in the last two games. However, the SFM sees his chances of scoring at last once with only a probability of about 25%. Even lower are the odds forSantiago Gimenez, who, in eight appearances, has so far struggled to find the back of the net.


AS RomavsParma Calcio

Lastly, a quick look at AS Roma who is hosting Parma Calcio.

For Parma, the odds of scoring for either Patrick Cutrone or Mateo Pellegrino – the only two Parma players to have scored so far – seem to be pretty much stacked against them.

For the Giallorossi, the picture looks vastly different: both Matias Soulé and Evan Ferguson are given a more than one in three chance to score at least once.

Further SFM Resources

Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.

Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.

#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha


Read next