⚽️ It’s Friday! And that means, a weekend full of European soccer ahead!
📣 Update
We have significantly increased the universe of players, covering now almost 600!
🏴 The Premier League
This weekend, the Premier League is expected to hold two stunners: first-placed FC Arsenal is hosted by fourth-placed AFC Sunderland; and third-placed Liverpool FC at second-placed Manchester City.
AFC Sunderlandvs.
FC Arsenal
The odds of Arsenal’s forwards to find the back of the net are rather evenly distributed throughout the roster. Top scorer Viktor Gyökeres is not even the most promising candidate!
For Sunderland, the SFM currently only covers Simon Adingra and Bertrand Traoré – both without a goal this season so far. Though, each’s odds of scoring are higher than any of Arsenal’s forwards!
Manchester Cityvs.
FC Liverpool
According to the SFM, Manchester City fans can be quite hopeful: the model assigns a chance of more than 23% of Erling Haaland scoring 2+ goals.
On Liverpool’s side, the highest prospects to do the same, would be on Mohamed Salah – though with a median probability of only around 6%!
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
Similarly thrilling action is to be expected at: Olympique Lyon vs. Paris Saint Germain. It is a decisive match: a win by the Lyonnaise would close the gap between the two teams to just one point, while a loss would give PSG a comfortable buffer.
According to the SFM, no player on either side is really standing out! With PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé likely being out due to injury, Olympique’s players seem to have a slight edge, with median probabilities of scoring at least one goal ranging around the 25% mark.
🇮🇹 Serie A
On Saturday it is the Derby della Mole that will keep Turin on its toes: Juventus vs FC Torino.
The SFM has the odds clearly tilted: projections for Juventus’ forwards to score at least one goal range uniformly around the low thirties, while Torino’s forwards’ median probabilities are about 10 percentage points lower.
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.
#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha