⚽️ It’s Friday! And that means, a weekend full of European soccer ahead!
After players were on the road with their national teams for the World Cup 2026 qualifiers, the European leagues resume their regular schedule, with a few highlights awaiting us especially in the Premier League and Serie A.
🏴 The Premier League
The Premier League’s arguably hottest game this weekend will take place in London, where first placed FC Arsenal hosts local rival Tottenham Hotspur.
FC Arsenalvs.
Tottenham Hotspur
The Spurs have to win, if they don’t want to lose sight of the Gunners!
According to the SFM, the odds are clearly tilted towards Arsenal: top scorers Saka Bukayo, Leandro Trossard, and Viktor Gyökeres are each given at least a 30% chance to score one goal or more.
This is way above Tottenham’s top scorer, Richarlison: ~22%.
🇮🇹 Serie A
The Serie A returns with two high profile games this weekend: on Saturday it is SSC Napoli facing Atalanta Bergamo a casa, whereas on Sunday it is all eyes on the city of Milan: the Derby della Madonnina between FC Internazionale and AC Milan.
SSC Napolivs.
Atalanta Bergamo
Taking a short lookback perspective, this game may not look like a high-profile game as Atalanta has been struggling to meet its performance of previous seasons. Yet, it has always been a tough contender for the Scudetto in recent years.
For injury-plagued Napoli, it is Rasmus Hoejlund and Lorenzo Lucca – who come to a combined score of (only) three goals this season – with the highest probability of non-injured players scoring: ~ 33%.
Yet, the SFM does neither attribute a probability of scoring at least once to any of Atalanta’s forwards! Median probabilities of not finding the back of the net at all: > 76%.
FC Internazionale Milanovs.
AC Milan
Arguably the match of the week! A win would allow the Rossoneri to bypass Inter and eventually even claim the top of the ladder. Stakes are obviously high!
Yet, the SFM clearly favors Inter! Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez are both given about a one in three chance to score at least one goal ~ 33%.
Milan’s forwards are only given about a one in four chance: ~25%.
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.
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