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SFM Preview

Friday, December 12, 2025

SFM Preview

🥅 Scoring Probabilities -- Players

This week, we’ll take a rather general look at the players with the highest median probability of finding the back of the net at least once.

  1. Harry Kane – FC Bayern München: ~ 55%
  2. Robert Lewandowski – FC Barcelona: ~ 52%
  3. Erling Haaland – Manchester City: ~ 49%
  4. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – OM: ~ 43%
  5. Mohamed Salah – Liverpool FC: ~ 41%
  6. 👉 Arne Slot might want to put this week’s differences with the Egyptian aside and follow the SFM’s advise if he wants to win back the hearts of the LFC fans – and keep his job.

🥅 Teams

Teams with the most number of players in the Top 15 to score at least one goal this weekend:

  1. FC Arsenal London: 6
  2. FC Bayern München: 3

👉 Both teams are at the top of the table in their leagues, will play on their home pitch, and face the team at the opposing end of the table!

Further SFM Resources

Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.

Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.

#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha


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