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Friday, December 19, 2025

๐Ÿฅ… Scoring Probabilities -- Players

This week, weโ€™ll take another look at the players with the highest median probability of finding the back of the net at least once.

  1. Erling Haaland โ€“ Manchester City: ~ 63%
  2. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang โ€“ OM: ~ 48%
  3. Harry Kane โ€“ FC Bayern Mรผnchen: ~ 48%
  4. Robert Lewandowski โ€“ FC Barcelona: ~ 41%
  5. Kylian Mbappe (**) โ€“ Real Madrid: ~ 37%

Special Remarks

๐Ÿ‘‰ Erling Haaland: about as likely to score once than not at all. The SFM even has him scoring twice with a median probability of about 20% (!)

๐Ÿ‘‰ (**) 5th place would actually have been Romelu Lukaku, the Belgian Great, who has apparently successfully recovered from several months of injury. Yet, because of the Italian Supercoppa, the match between SSC Napoli and Parma Calcio is postponed.

๐Ÿฅ… Teams

Teams with the most number of players in the Top 15 to score at least one goal this weekend.

  • Olympique Marseille: 3
๐Ÿ‘‰ A rather even distribution this week with no team really standing out.

๐Ÿ“ Last Weekโ€™s Recap

๐Ÿ‘‰ Last week, we had Arsenal and Bayern dominating the ranking, and were actually awaiting a shootout by both teams...

๐Ÿ‘‰ Well, it turns out that both teams struggled massively:

  • Arsenal only took the three points because of two own goals by the Wolverhampton Wanderers
  • Bayern struggled to secure a 2:2 draw against FSV Mainz 05

Further SFM Resources

Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.

Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.

#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha


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