This means: prime time for the Premier League! While all other major European Leagues are off to a Christmas break, the English Premier League honors its tradition of playing on Boxing Day and the day(s) thereafter.
What are the Soccer Factor Model’s (SFM) projections for players' scoring probabilities for the upcoming games?
Check out the website: https://soccerfactormodel.com
Players with the highest median probability of finding the back of the net at least once:
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City: ~ 55%
- Mohamed Salah – Liverpool FC: ~ 49%
- Cody Gakpo – Liverpool FC: ~ 39%
- Hugo Ekitike – Liverpool FC: ~ 38%
- Florian Wirtz – Liverpool FC: ~ 36%
🥅 Teams with the most number of players in the Top 15 to score at least one goal:
- Liverpool FC: 13 (!)
- Manchester City: 1
- FC Arsenal: 1
👉 It hardly gets more skewed than that! Liverpool FC is playing the so far winless (!) Wolverhampton Wanderers.
👉 One of the explanatory variables of the SFM is the difference in points between the two teams. This clearly kicks in here.
👉 As we have expanded the SFM universe to also include midfielders, the SFM puts almost the whole LFC roster into the Top 15!
🥅 Spotlight: Games to Watch
Liverpool FCvs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Given the bold call of the SFM, this will be a match to watch! According to the SFM, it wouldn’t really matter who plays, but Liverpool is poised to win that game!
🚨 We will have to judge our model in our recap segment on Tuesday!
FC Chelseavs.
Aston Villa
The only real highlight that stands out when looking at the table is the match between fourth-placed FC Chelsea and third-placed Aston Villa on Saturday. Chelsea must win to not lose track of the Top 3.
The SFM has the odds slightly in favor of the home team, though the margin is tight: ~ 5 percentage points across the rosters.
SFM Coverage
That’s it for this weekend. If you want to find out more, the SFM covers the #premierleague, the #bundesliga, #laliga, #seriea, and #ligue1. All available at:https://soccerfactormodel.com
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.
#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha