We start the year with a recap of Tuesday’s preview of the Premier League’s 19th gameday, and a preview of the upcoming games on the first weekend of 2026!
👉 Check out the website: https://soccerfactormodel.com/
📝 Recap of Tuesday’s Preview
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 53%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Benjamin Sesko – Manchester United:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 39%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Joshua Zirkzee – Manchester United:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 38%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 1
- Manuel Ugarte – Manchester United:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 36%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Cody Gakpo – Liverpool FC:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 35%
- Starting XI:
- no
- Substituted in:
- Minute 66’
- Goals Scored:
- 0
👉 Even though the field was dominated by ManU, it didn’t get to much more than a disappointing draw against last-placed Wolverhampton Wanderers at Old Trafford.
🥅 Preview of Upcoming Games
This weekend’s five players with the highest median probability of finding the back of the net at last once:
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City: ~ 61% (👉 Goals 2: ~ 20%)
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – OM: ~ 58%
- Robert Lewandowski – FC Barcelona: ~ 44%
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – PSG: ~ 38%
- Donyell Malen – Aston Villa: ~ 38%
🥅 Spotlight: Games to Watch
Paris St. Germainvs.
Paris FC
The first Parisian derby after 36 years! As every fan and Sunday League player knows: when it comes to a derby, everything can happen. It’s almost as if the laws of statistics get sidelined, and the excitement and emotions of the crowd carry the underdog to a performance, never seen before.
👉 The SFM, though, has the odds clearly tilted towards the reigning champions of both France and Europe: Paris St. Germain!
Espanyol Barcelonavs.
FC Barcelona
Other than in Paris, the Derbi Barceloní is rather a staple. Still, as in France, as in Spain: a derby is always special!
👉 The SFM has the probabilities of scoring at least once rather evenly distributed, with the only standout being Robert Lewandowski.
Internazionale Milanovs.
FC Bologna
The starting point is clear: the Nerazzurri have to win in order to fight off potential attacks from AC Milan and Napoli. Bologna instead desperately needs three points to not lose sight of the Champions League seats.
👉 The SFM has the odds tilted towards the home team.
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.
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