Recap Mixed / Multi-league

SFM Recap Tuesday

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

SFM Recap Tuesday

The weekend is over, results are in, the latest projections of the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) for the upcoming games are up on the website.

Time to revisit the SFM’s projections for last weekend’s games!

👉 Also: head over to our new website, with many more data-driven insights than just scoring probabilities: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com

📝 Recap of Friday’s Preview

  1. Kylian Mbappe – Real Madrid
    Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
    ~ 60%
    Starting XI:
    yes
    Goals Scored:
    1
  2. Erling Haaland – Manchester City:
    Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
    ~ 46%
    Starting XI:
    yes
    Goals Scored:
    0
  3. Harry Kane – Bayern München:
    Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
    ~ 44%
    Starting XI:
    yes
    Goals Scored:
    1
  4. Robert Lewandowski – FC Barcelona:
    Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
    ~ 43%
    Starting XI:
    no
    Substituted in:
    Minute 62’
    Goals Scored:
    0
  5. Mohamed Salah – Liverpool FC:
    Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
    ~ 42%

    👉 Still off, after playing at the Africa Cup.

Further SFM Resources

Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.

Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.

#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha


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