The weekend is over, results are in, the latest forecasts of the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) for the upcoming games are up on the website.
Time to revisit the SFM’s projections for last weekend’s games!
👉 Also: head over to our new website, with many more data-driven insights than just scoring probabilities: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📝 Recap of Friday’s Preview – Players
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 59%
- Starting XI:
- no
- Substituted in:
- Minute 73’
- Goals Scored:
- 0
👉 We mentioned explicitly the Haaland’s high median probability of scoring even 2+ goals. But Pep Guardiola either didn’t read our forecasts or couldn’t have cared less...@Manchester City
- Harry Kane – Bayern München:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 56%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Lois Openda – Juventus Turin:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 41%
- Starting XI:
- no
- Substituted in:
- no
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Jonathan David – Juventus Turin:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 34%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 1
- Goncalo Ramos – Paris Saint-Germain:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 34%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Leandro Trossard — Arsenal FC
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 22%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Benjamin Sesko – Manchester United
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 21%
- Starting XI:
- no
- Substituted in:
- Minute 81’
- Goals Scored:
- 0
👉 This makes it 1 out of 7 (6 if we don’t count Lois Openda who wasn’t given a chance at all) for last weekend’s picks. Room for improvement...
📝 Recap of Friday’s Preview – Games
FC Arsenalvs.
Manchester United
The SFM didn’t have a clear favorite there, despite the Gunners playing on their home turf and having sat a comfortable 15 points ahead of ManU. And what a game it was: Manchester taking the 3 points in a 2:3 win over first-placed Arsenal.
Juventus Turinvs.
SSC Napoli
As we wrote, the SFM had the odds tilted towards the Bianconeri. And indeed: sending the Neapolitains back home with a 3:0 shootout.
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
Link to the Dashboard: Skill- & Performance-Above-Replacement.
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