After the last matchday of the regular Champions League season, we’re now back again to the national leagues.
The Soccer Factor Model (SFM), is already awaiting with the latest predictions of +1,000 players across Europe’s Top 5 leagues.
👉 Head over to our website to see the full scope of our predictions as well as many more player-specific metrics for +1,000 players: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
👉 Also: check out the new SFM Tracker, which tracks the SFM’s performance in predicting each week’s top 20 picks to score at at least one goal, as well as a comparison to a naive benchmark model.
🥅 Spotlight: Games
Como 1907vs.
Atalanta Bergamo
After Como’s 6:0 shootout against Torino last week, the team of former Spanish international Cesc Fabregas is hosting Atalanta Bergamo on Sunday. For both teams this is already a small inflection point in the season: a win is a must, in order to lose sight of the Top 4.
👉 The SFM has the odds quite evenly distributed across both team’s strikers with a slight tilt towards Como.
🤓 This mirrors the SFM’s factor structure: the home pitch factor pushes the odds towards Como. The point-difference factor, though, is rather weak in this setting: despite Como sitting 5 points ahead of Atalanta, the difference just doesn’t seem enough for the SFM to tilt the odds even more decisively towards Como.
📣 SFM Outlook: Como 1907 ~ Atalanta Bergamo
Olympique Lyonvs.
OSC Lille
A similar setup as above: either team has to win to hang on to the Champions League qualifying seats for next season.
👉 The SFM has the odds tilted on average across the roster slightly more towards Olympique, though, Lille’s star forward Olivier Giroud has overall the highest probability of scoring at least one!
📣 SFM Outlook: Olympique Lyon > OSC Lille
Prospects of becoming even the champion of France, however, seem miniscule for both teams at this stage...unless...
Racing Straßbourgvs
Paris Saint Germain
...well...unless, PSG stumbles in the Alsace!
👉 And indeed: other than Goncalo Ramos and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who can also only preserve a slight edge, the average odds across the roster are very similar!
🤓 Again, the factor structure at play: the home pitch factor pushes towards Straßbourg, while the point-difference factor tilts more into the direction of PSG. Definitely a match to look out for this weekend!
📣 SFM Outlook: Racing Straßbourg ~ PSG
🥅 Spotlight: Players
This week’s spotlight players’ median probability of finding the back of the net at least once:
- Gianluca Scamacca – Atalanta Bergamo: ~ 24%
- Goncalo Ramos – PSG: ~ 23%
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – PSG: ~ 22%
- Alvaro Morata – Como 1907: ~ 22%
- Tassos Douvikas – Como 1907: ~ 21%
- Olivier Giroud – OSC Lille: ~ 19%
- Emanuel Emegha – Racing Straßbourg: ~ 19%
- Malick Fofana – Olympique Lyon: ~ 18%
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha #assetpricing