It’s Friday again, and despite the Winter Olympics kicking off, there is also a packed weekend full of European football ahead of us!
The Soccer Factor Model (SFM), is already awaiting with the latest predictions of +1,000 players across Europe’s Top 5 leagues.
👉 Head over to our website to see the full scope of our predictions as well as many more player-specific metrics for +1,000 players: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
🥅 Spotlight: Games
FC Liverpoolvs.
Manchester City
On Sunday, it is a banger in the Premier League: Manchester City has to travel to Anfield Road. For Liverpool it is more a game of prestige and honor, but City has to win to not lose sight of first-placed Arsenal.
👉 Overall, the SFM sees LFC at a slight advantage. Nonetheless, it is once again Norwegian international Erling Haaland who is given about a 45% chance to score at least once at Anfield this weekend!
🤓 Looking under the hood of the the SFM’s prediction: once again it is the home pitch factor that play’s in LFC’s favor, while the point-difference factor cannot make up for the former’s effect, despite City sitting 8 points ahead of Liverpool
📣 SFM Outlook: FC Liverpool > Manchester City
FC Bayern Münchenvs.
TSG Hoffenheim
At the very same time, also the Bundesliga has, well not a banger, but at least its very one top match: first-placed Bayern will be hosting third-placed Hoffenheim! It’ll be the match in which the two teams with the most goals scored will face each other! Though the 43 goals scored by Hoffenheim pale a bit relative to Bayern’s 74 goals ...
👉 The SFM has the odds clearly tilted towards Bayern. Topscorer Harry Kane clearly stands out, followed by Nicolas Jackson and Serge Gnabry. The only Hoffenheim player that the SFM deems in a similar ballpark is Andreij Kramaric.
📣 SFM Outlook: FC Bayern München > TSG Hoffenheim
Paris Saint-Germainvs.
Olympique Marseille
Again Sunday, though this time Paris: first-placed PSG hosts third-placed OM at Parc des Princes! A win by the home team would very likely kick OM out of this season’s title race!
👉 The SFM has PSG with a slight edge overall, though with a surprisingly small margin! Interestingly, it is the visitors’ Pierre Emerick Aubameyang who the SFM sees as the most likely candidate to score at least one goal.
📣 SFM Outlook: PSG > OM
Atletico Madridvs.
Real Betis Sevilla
Saturday, Madrid, Vicente Calderón... long gone are the times when stadiums still had those awestruck names... anyway, back to 2026: at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, third-placed Atletico is hosting fifth-placed Betis.
👉 Seems the to be a no-brainer according to the SFM: a clear win by Atletico
👉 Interesting to note: Antoine Griezmann is overall the most likely candidate to score at least once. But he is not the most likely player to score exactly one goal! It is rather the 5% chance to score 2 or more goals, that makes him overall the most likely candidate to find the back of the net at least once!
📣 SFM Outlook: Atletico Madrid > Real Betis Sevilla
🥅 Spotlight: Players
This week’s spotlight players’ median probability of finding the back of the net at least once:
- Harry Kane – FC Bayern München: ~ 50%
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City: ~ 45%
- Pierre Emerick Aubameyang – OM: ~ 31%
- Serge Gnabry – FC Bayern München: ~ 28%
- Antoine Griezmann – Atletico Madrid: ~ 25%
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
#socceranalytics #pymc #sportsanalytics #bayesian #statistics #soccer #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha #assetpricing