It’s Friday again, so let’s take a look at the Soccer Factor Model’s (SFM) predictions for goal scoring probabilities in Europe’s elite leagues!
👉 In case you want to learn more about this work, head over to our website to see the full scope of our predictions as well as many more player-specific metrics for +1,000 players: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
🥅 Spotlight: Games
FC Internazionale Milanovs.
Juventus Turin
On Saturday, the Serie A awaits with a classic: the first-placed Nerazzurri host the Bianconeri at Giuseppe Meazza. In 185 matches between the two, Juventus took a staggering 89 wins, while Inter could only clock in 49 wins. In the last game, the two teams excited the audience with a thrilling 7-goal match.
👉 This time, the SFM sees overall a slight advantage for the Milanesi, with top scorers Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram clearly standing out.
📣 SFM Outlook: FC Internazionale Milano > Juventus Turin
SSC Napolivs.
AS Roma
!?️ A weird situation that the tifosi of Napoli are faced with on Saturday: either root for Inter, as watching the archenemy Juventus lose has always a sweet taste to it, but then not being able to close the gap to first-placed Inter. Or root for Juventus, as a win by the Bianconeri would reinvigorate the hopes of defending the Scudetto, but having the archenemy sitting in the own backyard.
On Sunday then, the SSC Napoli face their own challenge, as they face the Giallorossi, who are themselves sitting at par with Juventus and only three points shy of the team from the foot of the Vesuvio.
👉 The SFM sees a slight edge for Napoli. But a tight one only. Roma’s Donyell Malen, who scored two goals in the last week’s game against Cagliari, is given only a 21% chance to find the back of the net.
📣 SFM Outlook: SSC Napoli > AS Roma
FC Metzvs.
AJ Auxerre
The Ligue 1 shows a precarious situation: the bottom three teams need to close a gap of at least 8 points to reach the fourth-to-last place that saves them from being relegated. Yet, the third-to-last place, would get them into the wild card game.
Hence, it is basically a fight, and a tough one (!), for this wild card place, which is currently held by Auxerre, but Metz – sitting at the very bottom of the table – is only one point shy of it!
👉 The SFM doesn’t really have a clear tilt towards any of the teams, but: Metz’s Habib Diallo! The forward, who has scored 4 times so far, is given a median probability of about 35% to find the back of the net!
📣 SFM Outlook: FC Metz > AJ Auxerre
🥅 Spotlight: Players
This week’s spotlight players’ median probability of finding the back of the net at least once:
- Habib Diallo – FC Metz: ~ 35%
- Lautaro Martinez – Internazionale Milano: ~ 35%
- Marcus Thuram – Internazionale Milano: ~ 29%
- Rasmus Hoejlund – SSC Napoli: ~ 26%
- Donyell Malen – AS Roma: ~ 21%
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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