It’s Friday again, so let’s take a look at the Soccer Factor Model’s (SFM) predictions for goal scoring probabilities in Europe’s elite leagues!
👉 In case you want to learn more about this work, head over to our website to see the full scope of our predictions as well as many more player-specific metrics for +1,000 players: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
🥅 Spotlight: Games
RB Leipzigvs.
Borussia Dortmund
We start the trip in Germany: the Bundesliga’s match of the week takes place in Leipzig, where fifth-placed Leipzig hosts second-place Borussia Dortmund. Yet, 11 points are separating the two!
👉 The SFM sees a slight edge for the BVB with top scorers Serhou Guirassy and Maximilian Beier being projected to have a more than one-in-five chance to score at least once.
🤓 Despite the home pitch factor playing in Leipzig’s favor, the SFM’s point-difference factor seems to kick in for Dortmund here!
❗Yet, the bookmakers see it differently!
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- RB Leipzig < Borussia Dortmund
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- RB Leipzig > Borussia Dortmund
Juventus Turinvs.
Como 1907
We travel south into the Piemonte where Spalletti’s Juventus will host Fabregas’ Como. Only 4 points separating the teams, which are both in chase of the precious Champions League qualifying seats for next season.
👉 Clear story according to the SFM: across the roster, Juve’s forwards have the higher scoring probabilities, with especially Lois Openda and Jonathan David standing out!
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Juventus Turin > Como 1907
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Juventus Turin > Como 1907
CA Osasunavs.
Real Madrid
After the victorious trip to Lisbon during the week, Los Blancos have to stand the test in Pamplona at CA Osasuna, to defend their spot at the top of the table.
👉 The SFM has the odds clearly stacked in Madrid’s favor. Yet, Osasuna’s top scorer Ante Budimir is still given more than a one-in-five chance to score!
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- CA Osasuna < Real Madrid
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- CA Osasuna < Real Madrid
🥅 Spotlight: Players
This week’s spotlight players’ median probability of finding the back of the net at least once:
- Lois Openda – Juventus Turin: ~ 42%
- Jonathan David – Juventus Turin: ~ 36%
- Kylian Mbappe – Real Madrid : ~ 51%
- Ante Budimir – CA Osasuna: ~ 23%
- Serhou Guirassy – Borussia Dortmund: ~ 27%
- Maximilian Beier – Borussia Dortmund: ~ 22%
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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