It’s Champions League time! So let’s take a look at the Soccer Factor Model’s (SFM) predictions for goal scoring probabilities for the upcoming second leg of the play-offs!
But before that, let’s take stock of some of our predictions as of last Friday.
👉 In case you want to learn more about this work, head over to our website to see the full scope of our predictions as well as many more player-specific metrics for +1,000 players: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📝 Recap: Games
RB Leipzigvs.
Borussia Dortmund
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- RB Leipzig < Borussia Dortmund
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- RB Leipzig > Borussia Dortmund
- 👉 Result
- 2:2
Juventus Turinvs.
Como 1907
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Juventus Turin > Como 1907
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Juventus Turin > Como 1907
- 👉 Result
- 0:2
CA Osasunavs.
Real Madrid
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- CA Osasuna < Real Madrid
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- CA Osasuna < Real Madrid
- 👉 Result
- 2:1
🥅 Preview: Games 🏆
Juventus Turinvs.Galatasaray Istanbul
After a devastating 5:2 defeat, the Old Lady has its back against the wall. Nothing is impossible for sure, but it requires something similar to La Remontada, when the Catalans fought down PSG in a magnificent 6:1 match in the round of 16 during the 2016/17 season.
👉 The SFM sees slightly higher probabilities for the players of the Juventus roster. But that might not be enough to stop Gala from proceeding onto the next round.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Juventus Turin > Galatasaray Istanbul
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Juventus Turin > Galatasaray Istanbul
FC Internazionale Milanovs.FK Bodö/Glimt
A similar challenge awaits the Italian leader: a 3:1 defeat in the Norwegian cold is not impossible to recoup in the fortress of San Siro, yet, the recent history has shown that Norwegian teams have been quite a headache for Italians #FifaWorldCup2026
👉 Yet, the SFM has the odds clearly tilted towards Inter.
📣 SFM Outlook: FC Internazionale Milano > FK Bodö/Glimt
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: FC Internazionale Milano > FK Bodö/Glimt
Atalanta Bergamovs.Borussia Dortmund
Another Italian team that has a mountain to climb after a 2:0 defeat in the first leg.
👉 The SFM even sees slight advantages for Dortmund, even though Atalanta’s Gianluca Scamacca being projected to have about a one-in-three chance to score at least once.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Atalanta Bergamo ~ Borussia Dortmund
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Atalanta Bergamo > Borussia Dortmund
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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