It’s Friday again, and a weekend full of European football ahead of us! Let’s have a look what the Soccer Factor Model’s (SFM) predicts for the upcoming matches.
👉 To find out more, head over to our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📝 Recap – Players:
On Tuesday, we spotlighted the 5 players with the highest median probabilities to score on the Premier League’s 29th matchday. So how did it turn out?
- Erling Haaland - Manchester City:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 62%
- Starting XI
- yes
- Goals Scored
- 0
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 40%
- Starting XI
- yes
- Goals Scored
- 1
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 39%
- Starting XI
- yes
- Goals Scored
- no
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 35%
- Starting XI
- no
- Substituted in
- no
- Goals Scored
- 0
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 30%
- Starting XI
- yes
- Goals Scored
- 0
🥅 Preview – Matches:
AC Milanvs.
FC Internazionale Milano
What a banger that awaits us on Sunday: il derby di Milano! And what a derby it is! Second-placed Milan is currently trailing first-placed Inter by 10 (!) points. A win is therefore a must for the Rossoneri if they want to maintain the hopes of lifting the Scudetto at the end of the season. But, of course, this match is much more than that: it’s about beating the local rival, winning over the city, rallying the tifosi for the last quarter of the season. It is at least as much about gaining momentum and the mental edge, than it is about the points!
🤓 This setup has the SFM being tricked: formally, the home pitch factor is supposed to work in favor of Milan. But actually, both teams play at home...this generates an interesting situation in which the probabilities of both teams’ top scorers are pretty much tied!
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Milan ~ Inter
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Milan < Inter
Athtletic Bilbaovs.
FC Barcelona
On paper, this is just another match on the road for Barça: but those who have ever watched a game of Athtletic Bilbao, especially against the big three teams, knows that this is no match than any other. The atmosphere in San Mamés, when the proud Basques cheer for their team with all their passion, is just mesmerizing. With the fans in the stands and coaching legend Ernesto Valverde on the bench, this match is much more than what it seems on paper.
🤓 Still, from a pure data perspective, the SFM clearly sees the three points being taken by the visitors.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Athletic < Barça
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Athletic < Barça
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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