Only a couple of hours left until Europe’s Top 8 teams line up for the first leg of Champions League Quarter Finals! We’ll stop in Madrid and Paris to see what the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) predicts for the upcoming matches!
👉 To find out more, head over to our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
But before doing so, let’s first take stock of how the SFM fared over the weekend...
📝 Recap – Players
Robert Lewandowski – FC Barcelona:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 53%
- Starting XI
- no
- Substituted in
- Minute 79’
- Goals Scored
- 1
Romelu Lukaku – SSC Napoli:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 34%
- Starting XI
- no
- Substituted in
- no
- Goals Scored
- 0
Rasmus Hoejlund – SSC Napoli:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 28%
- Starting XI
- no
- Substituted in
- no
- Goals Scored
- 0
- Olivier Giroud – OSC Lille:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 25%
- Starting XI:
- no
- Substituted in:
- Minute 73’
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Niclas Füllkrug – AC Milan:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 25%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Marcus Rashford – FC Barcelona:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 24%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 1
- Alexander Soerloth – Atletico Madrid:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 23%
- Starting XI:
- no
- Substituted in:
- Minute 61’
Goals Scored: 0
🥅 Preview – Matches
Real Madridvs.
Bayern München
On the road to the 16th Champions League title, Los Blancos faces La Bestia Negra, as Bayern is fearfully nicknamed in Spain. Looking at the “recent” history though, the Bestia has been behaving more like a little puppy: the last win over the Medrilènes dates back to April, 25th 2012, when Bayern won a legendary penalty shootout and advanced to the “Finale Dahoam”, which was later on tragically lost – well, at home.
Back to the future, commentators as well as bookmakers seem to favor the visitors from Bavaria. In addition, Real has to recover from a painful last minute loss to Mallorca over the weekend. Yet, even professional football players might have to struggle with setting their mental priorities: focus on a yet not-so-unimportant league match, or already have the glorious CL evening in mind?!
🤓 For both teams the distribution of median probabilities to score at least one goal look similar across both rosters. Yet, Real’s is slightly more skewed to the right, with Kylian Mbappe being the clear outlier.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Real ~ Bayern
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Real < Bayern
Paris St. Germainvs.
FC Liverpool
The reigning champion hosts the team that lifted the trophy itself in 2019 for the last time. Far behind its own ambitions in the Premier League, the CL is the only way for Liverpool to turn around a disappointing season and win back the hearts of their berated supporters. But PSG is more than just a hurdle, especially at home in their casket Parc des Princes. And PSG just demonstrated last round that they’re more than just serious about defending their trophy: 8 (!) goals in two matches against Chelsea, which is sitting only one point shy of Liverpool in the Premier League. Well, draw your own inference...
🤓 Despite the home pitch factor playing in Paris’ favor, the distribution of median goal scoring probabilities doesn’t hint at a clear favorite.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Paris ~ LFC
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Paris > LFC
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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