The second leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarter Finals starts tonight, and once again we’ll have a look at the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) predictions for players’ scoring probabilities for the upcoming matches!
Follow the SFM
🌍 On our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📱 On our app (only Apple iPhone): https://apps.apple.com/app/id6758757755
But before doing so, let’s first take stock of how the SFM fared over the weekend...
📝 Recap – Players
Robert Lewandowski – FC Barcelona:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 55%
- Starting XI
- no
- Substituted in
- no
- Goals Scored
- 0
- Erling Haaland – Manchester City:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 50%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Marcus Rashford – FC Barcelona:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 34%
- Substituted in
- Minute 64’
- Goals Scored
- 1
Tassos Douvikas – Como 1907:
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal
- ~ 21%
- Starting XI
- yes
- Goals Scored
- 0
🥅 Preview – Matches
Bayern Münchenvs.
Real Madrid
What a game that was last week in the Santiago Bernabeu! Bayern took the win, also thanks to Manuel Neuer, who delivered a performance that was reminiscent of that legendary night in Porto back in 2008. However, Real has already cracked the code of winning in the Allianz Arena many more times in the past than Bayern would have liked. Furthermore, Real is now sitting 9 points shy of Barça in La Liga. The Champions League is thus the last outlet to take home some meaningful silverware this year.
🤓 The number of players covered by the SFM for the CL, is currently quite restricted. Yet, it seems the SFM attributes higher median probabilities of scoring at least once to Munich.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Bayern > Real
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Bayern > Real
FC Liverpoolvs.
Paris St. Germain
With a 2:0 win in the first round, PSG is in an advantaged position, yet, it could – or rather – should have been much more comfortable. Especially Ousmane Dembélé missed out on a couple of big opportunities to find the back of the net. It is still a behemoth of a challenge for LFC, but at Anfield you never walk alone. The bookmakers have the odds slightly in favor of the home team even. But will it be enough to advance to the next round?
🤓 The SFM has it as the bookmakers: LFC wins the match, but do they advance to the next round?
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- LFC > PSG
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- LFC > PSG
Atletico Madridvs.
FC Barcelona
The third match within 10 days between the two teams! In La Liga, Barça took the three points, in the first round of the CL, it was, yet, Atletico. Boosted by a 4:1 win over their local rival Espanyol at the weekend, Barça seems well prepared for the challenge to overturn the 0:2 loss in the first leg. But everyone who has ever watched a match by Atletico knows about these special nights where coach Diego Simeone’s special temper inculcates the players, fighting for their team and their coach to the very end with all they have.
🤓 Across the roster, the SFM has the odds slightly tilted in favor of Atletico!
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Atletico > Barça
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Atletico < Barça
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
#socceranalytics #football #prediction #forecasting #sfm #factormodels #alpha #assetpricing