After a rollercoaster ride of emotions for some fans during this week’s Champions League quarter finals, we’re back to the final stretch of the national leagues – and a few blockbuster games are awaiting us: two Manchester - London derby’s as well as a French classic.
So let’s have a look at the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) predictions for players’ scoring probabilities for the upcoming matches!
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📝 Recap – Players (CL Edition)
- Harry Kane – FC Bayern München
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 52%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 1
- Kylian Mbappe – Real Madrid
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 46%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 1
- Robert Lewandowski – FC Barcelona
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 40%
- Substituted in:
- Minute 64’
- Goals Scored:
- 1
- Antoine Griezmann – Atletico Madrid
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 26%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
- Julian Alvarez – Atletico Madrid
- Probability of Scoring at least one goal:
- ~ 25%
- Starting XI:
- yes
- Goals Scored:
- 0
🥅 Preview – Matches
Manchester Cityvs.
FC Arsenal London
It’s showtime in Manchester: second-placed city against the first-placed Gunners. With one match less than Arsenal, City (64) sits 6 points shy of the Londoners (70). The maths is simple: Arsenal is just not allowed to lose, otherwise this is gonna be a fiery final 5 games until the end of the season. Looking across all competitions, momentum is clearly on City’s side: they won all of their last three games, in which they faced no other than: Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea. The Gunners in contrast could only win one out of their last five games across all competitions – though securing their advancement to the CL semi-finals during the week might have given them some confidence booster.
🤓 The SFM could not have assigned a more equal distribution across both rosters – yet we have this one single outlier: Erling Haaland.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- City ~ Arsenal
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- City > Arsenal
Paris Saint-Germainvs.
Olympique Lyon
In France, a classic is waiting. Even though OL is not playing for the trophy this year, they need the 3 points to stay in the competition for the CL seats. For PSG though, this might be the last real hurdle on the road to securing yet another title. Looking again across competitions, momentum is clearly on PSG’s side: 6 wins out of their last 6 games, with blockbuster blowouts against the English heavyweights Chelsea and Liverpool.
🤓 The SFM has no doubt: the three points stay at Parc des Princes.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- PSG > OL
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- PSG > OL
Chelsea FCvs.
Manchester United
The other Manchester - London derby takes place at the Stamford Bridge. A match that in the mid 2000s would have been a fight for the title – but long gone days of Lampard, Joe Cole, Drogba, and Ballack facing Rio Ferdinand, Cristinao Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney, Paul Scholes and most of all: Sir Alex Ferguson.
🤓 The SFM one player of either team clearly standing out: Cole Palmer for the Blues, and Benjamin Sesko for the Red Devils.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Chelsea ~ ManU
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Chelsea > ManU
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