Champions League Preview Champions League

SFM Preview Tuesday: Champions League Edition! 🏆

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

It’s the UEFA Champions League Semi Finals! Among the four teams are remaining, we have: (I) a designated national champion (Bayern München), (II) the reigning champion of Europe and France (Paris Saint-Germain), (III) the team that only a couple of weeks ago seemed to finally make it over the finish line and lift again the Premier League title after 22 years, but whose buffer has now entirely been blown out (Arsenal London), and (IV) Atletico Madrid.

Let’s have a look at the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) predictions for players’ scoring probabilities for the upcoming matches!

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But before doing so, let’s first take stock of how the SFM fared over the weekend...

📝 Recap – Matches

Wolverhampton Wanderersvs.Tottenham Hotspur

📣 SFM Outlook: Wolves < Spurs
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: Wolves < Spurs
⚽ Result: 0:1

AC Milanvs.Juventus Turin

A classic result for a classic match-up ...

📣 SFM Outlook: Milan > Juve
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: Milan < Juve
⚽ Result: 0:0

🥅 Preview – Champions League Matches

Paris St. Germainvs.Bayern München

It’s show time at the Parc des Princes! The reigning Champion of Europe and very likely coming Champion of France, Paris Saint-Germain, is hosting the designated German champion, Bayern München, to kick off the first leg of the CL Semi Finals!

It’s a remake of the 2020 Final, when Kingsley Coman decided a breath-taking match with a classic header and crowned Bayern as the Champion of Europe.

In the meantime, the two teams have faced each other another 6 times. In the last 5 out of those match-ups, Bayern has shown no mercy and has always left the pitch as the winner.

Both teams also enter the game with a lot of confidence: while PSG didn’t leave any doubts about their aspirations in a 0:3 win over Angers SCO, Bayern came back from a 3:0 handicap to beat down Mainz 05 over the weekend 3:4.

🤓 According to the SFM it’s a coude-à-coude. Still, Bayern’s star forward Harry Kane is given a 45% median probability to find the back of the net at least once!

📣 SFM Outlook: PSG ~ Bayern
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: PSG > Bayern

Atletico Madridvs.Arsenal London

On Wednesday, Atletico is hosting the Gunners in the second match-up. Another season in which Atletico could not keep up with the other two Spanish outlets, Real and Barça, which, however, makes the Champions League ever so important.

But both teams have struggled quite massively in recent weeks: Atletico could only stop a four-game losing streak at the weekend with a win over Athletic Bilbao. Similarly, the Gunners just won their first match after suffering from two disappointing losses, allowing ManCity to chase down the Gunners and dissolve Arsenal’s comfortable cushion.

Long story short: both teams are not in their best shapes. No better way to regain momentum with a win then...

🤓 As the bookmakers have the odds slightly tilted towards the Englishmen, the SFM, has them ever so slightly tilted towards the Spaniards. Clearly standing out are Antoine Griezmann and Alexander Sörloth, who have already demonstrated at the weekend that they know where the goal is located on the pitch.

📣 SFM Outlook: Atletico > Arsenal
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: Atletico < Arsenal