It’s Friday again, and another weekend full of European football ahead of us!
With the regular seasons coming to an end across all leagues, it’s crunchtime!
🇮🇹 In Italy, we have one of the fiercest derbies taking place: the Derby del Campidoglio.
🇩🇪 The Bundesliga has its last match day of the season scheduled this weekend, and there is a real thriller awaiting us in the fight for playing in Germany’s top outlet also next season.
🇪🇸 And then, well, there is the next round of the Spanish Russian Roulette! With a couple of upsets during the week, there are now 11 (!) teams at the bottom of the La Liga table sitting within a range of only 5 points. With only 2 games to go, 2 teams out of these 11 will have to start in Segunda División next season.
So, let’s get right into it and have a look at the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) predictions for players’ scoring probabilities for the upcoming matches!
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🌍 On our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
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X On twitter @ SFM_Predicts
📝 Recap – Matches
RC Lensvs.
Paris Saint-Germain
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Lens ~ PSG
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Lens < PSG
- ⚽ Result
- 0:2
Manchester Cityvs.
Crystal Palace
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- City > Palace
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- City > Palace
- ⚽ Result
- 3:0
🥅 Preview – Matches
AS Romavs.
SS Lazio
Il Derby della Capitale! It is one of the most electrifying derbies when the Giallorossi face the Laziali at the Stadio Olimpico. It is also a face-to-face between two grandmasters of coaches: Gian Piero Gasperini vs. Maurizio Sarri.
For the AS Roma, it is also a crucial match in the run for the Champions League next year, as any lost point could mean losing millions for not starting in Europe’s elite competition. Lazio on the other hand will have to recover from this week’s loss to Inter in the final of the Coppa Italia. And momentum is clearly on Roma’s side: the Giallorossi have won all of their last 3 appearances, while Lazio couldn’t clock in a win in their last 3 appearances.
🤓 The SFM has a clear opinion: the banners swung in Rome will be made of the colors Giallo e Rosso.
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Roma > Lazio
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Roma > Lazio
FC St. Paulivs.
VFL Wolfsburg
The setup before the last game of the season:
- VFL Wolfsburg (26 points)
- FC St. Pauli (26 points)
- 1.FC Heidenheim (26 points)
Only spot 16 saves you from automatic relegation into the second division...what a set-up this is.
And momentum is actually only on Heidenheim’s side with 7 points out of the last 3 matches – among which a 3:3 draw against Bayern! Wolfsburg only took away 2 points out of their last 3 matches. But St. Pauli tops it all: 3 points out of the last 9 matches.
The game is on...
🤓 Across both rosters the probabilities of scoring are very muted. The home pitch factor moves the odds slightly in Pauli’s territory. Yet, the bookmakers see the advantage on Wolfsburg’s side!
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- St. Pauli > Wolfsburg
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- St. Pauli < Wolfsburg
The Spanish Madness
With 2 match days outstanding, only 5 points are separating 19th-placed UD Levante and 9th-placed Athletic Bilbao! That means: either you play internationally next season, or you are still fighting for your survival in La Liga!
What an end to a season...
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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