It is again this day of the year. After a long and excruciating season, the (arguably) best two teams of Europe are facing each other for the final 90 (or even more) minutes to find out who will become the Champion of Europe!
This year it is the Champion of England – Arsenal London – challenging the Champion of France and reigning Champion of Europe – Paris Saint Germain, in the Puskás Arena in Budapest!
So, let’s have a look at the Soccer Factor Model (SFM) predictions for players’ scoring probabilities for this year’s Champions League Final!
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🥅 Preview – Champions League Final 🏆
Paris Saint Germainvs.
Arsenal London
It is the battle of two Champions, the battle of two capitals, the battle of France vs. England to conquer Europe – but also the grand final with two Spanish coaches on the sideline!
Luis Enrique and Mikel Arteta have clearly demonstrated that they need to be counted among the best of their kind: regarding Enrique, it is one thing to coach a club with such financial resources, but it is a whole different thing to form a team and lead it into the Champions League Final in two consecutive years. Arteta, the former Arsenal player himself, has achieved what even the great Arsene Wenger did not: winning the Premier League and leading the Gunners into the Champions League Final.
Can history tell us anything about the upcoming match-up? Well, it is the first time that both teams face each other this season – last year, though, it was PSG that eliminated Arsenal in the semi-finals with two back-to-back wins, later going on to win the title.
But now, what about the Players? What does the SFM say?
Well, overall, the probabilities hint at a final without many goals – famous last words...
The SFM puts the highest probabilities of scoring on PSG’s Goncalo Ramos and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, but sets it at around only 25%!
Both are followed by an arsenal of Gunners (🙄) from Saka, via Havertz to Eze – though none of them exceeding 22%!
Lastly, we have to spend a word on Ousmane Dembelé. The French superstar is said to be on board, but hasn’t been an SFM favorite for the entire season. Once again, the SFM puts his probability of scoring at a meager 15% (!!!).
🤓 Taking all this into account, the SFM doesn’t have a clear tilt: a few PSG outliers followed by a pack of Arsenal players. Yes, it’s a boring call, but the data has spoken: a tie after 90 minutes!
📣 SFM Outlook (after 90 minutes): PSG ~ Arsenal
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: PSG > Arsenal
Further SFM Resources
Link to the Paper: Unveiling True Talent.
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