Only a couple of hours to go until the FIFA World Cup 2026 kicks off in the legendary Estadio Azteca in Mexico City – that place where almost exactly 40 years ago on June 22nd 1986 the GOAT himself, Diego Armando Maradona – who to this day is still worshiped as a Saint in living rooms and pizzerias all around Napoli – created the legend of the Hand of God.
Just in time, we have added a new model to our platform: the Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) – the World Cup 2026 edition!
SFMMO: W/D/L Probabilities
The model is inspired by its close cousin, the SFM, and relies similarly exclusively on publicly available data on World Cup tournaments since 2010 and corresponding qualifiers.
For each matchup, we provide point estimates and credible regions for W/D/L probabilities and the corresponding scorelines.
Note here that the “most likely scoreline” may not necessarily align with the “most likely winner”, as there might be many roads that lead to Rome for either team.
SFMMO: Champion Ranking
Of course, no model without making a call on who will lift the glorious trophy at the MetLife Stadium on July 19th!
For each team, our Champion Odds show advancement probabilities all the way through the final – and here the SFMMO might be off to a few bold calls already!
Follow the SFMMO
🌍 On our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📱 On our app (only Apple iPhone): https://apps.apple.com/app/id6758757755
X On twitter @SFM_Predicts
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