Only 2 days in and the FIFA World Cup 2026 is already off to a hot start. From red cards flying in left and right, via a #USMNT stunner, to many empty seats in the stands – great job FIFA.
Speaking of the US 4:1 win over Paraguay and with the five-time Champion Brazil entering the tournament today, it is time for a closer look at the SFMMO.
📝 SFMMO Recap
You have to own your wrong calls. The 4:1 US setup over Paraguay definitely caught the SFMMO on the wrong foot. That Paraguay is not living off of their extraordinary offense is not a secret. Yet, during the qualifiers, Paraguay had beaten the likes of Brazil and Argentina and had built up a stronghold of a defense, conceding only 10 goals in 18 games.
🤓 The SFMMO had assigned a mere 0.6% chance to the final 4:1 result, with the 90% upper bound reaching no more than 1.2%! Even without Giovanni Reyna’s last second, Quaresma-style trivela goal, the final outcome would have been a 2.3% event only!
🥅 SFMMO Preview
Brazilvs.
Morocco
The first heavyweight will be entering the stage on late Saturday, when the Seleção faces off against the African giant Morocco. Group C is one of the tougher ones, with Scotland and Haiti complementing the line-up.
Yet, the five-time Champion is entering the tournament with high hopes. Brazil may not be the unambiguous favorite on prediction markets nor is the roster filled with illustrious names as once upon time with the likes of Ronaldinho, Kakà, Ronaldo, Roberto Carlos, Rivaldo...
Yet, the Seleção still has offensive firepower that makes other countries envious (looking at you, Germany): from Real Madrid’s top star Vinicius Junior, via Raphinha, to Igor Thiago – the FC Brentford forward who is the Top 5 player to outperform his sfmG rating this season (!!) – and then, there is still: Neymar.
But the outstanding star of them all – who might be the secret ingredient carrying that team to unforeseen greatness – is the coach: il maestro, Carlo Ancelotti. The grandmaster who will go down in history as one of the greatest coaches of all time.
Morocco on the other hand is a team that would be disrespectful to only mention as a sidenote. The team out of north Africa made it to the semi-finals in the 2022 World Cup and to the final of the last Africa Cup of Nations. The team is stacked with players of the highest rated clubs such as PSG’s Ashraf Hakimi and Real Madrid Brahim Diaz
🤓 The SFMMO has the oddstilted towards the Seleção though, with the most likely outcome being a 1:0 for the team from the Sugerloaf Mountain.
- 📣 SFMMO Outlook
- Brazil > Morocco
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Brazil > Morocco
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