It’s this time of the year: club football is back again – as is the SFM!
We are excited that with the kick-off of the 2026/27 season, our platform now features an additional model: the Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO). It is the club football adaptation of the model that we had already running live during the World Cup 2026.
📣 Update I: SFM & SFMMO?!
The SFM, which has itself undergone some revision, will continue to provide individual players’ scoring probabilities for the upcoming match.
The SFMMO is designed to forecast W/D/L probabilities for each match in Europe’s Top-5 leagues all throughout the regular season.
🎮 Update II: play against the SFMMO!
Another update this season is the SFMMO Challenge: sign-up, play against the SFMMO, get scored, and track your performance on a weekly basis. See it as a paper-trading environment for your Kalshi account.
🥅 Preview – Title Odds
But now, back to the much more interesting part: pre-season title odds, what does the SFMMO say?
🏴 Premier League
What a race the SFMMO is projecting with Man City holding on to a razor thin margin over reigning champions Arsenal! The Top 5, however, are the usual suspects. One sidenote for the scolded soul of all Tottenham fans: only about a 2% chance to be relegated ...
🇮🇹 Serie A
Inter is projected to defend the Scudetto, and then the controversy starts: Juventus - Como - Napoli (... where is Milan?).
Juventus #2, that’s ... bold. The key to Como holding on to #3 will be how Cesc Fabregas’ team can cope with the additional load of the Champions league. Napoli #4 ... well, all data massaging and overfitting attempts have failed ... I sincerely hope the model is wrong!
🇪🇸 La Liga
The league of the World Cup Champions 2026 – to be won once again by FC Barcelona! Something José Mourinho can only laugh about...
🇩🇪 Bundesliga
Projected to be as boring a season as Germany’s performance during the World Cup...
🇫🇷 Ligue 1
Last but not least, PSG’s sandbox! The SFMMO sees a similar absence of competition for the reigning Champions of France and Europe as it sees for Bayern over in Germany. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see if RC Lens can once again pull off a season as they did last year and be PSG’s fiercest competitor.
Follow the SFM & SFMMO
🌍 On the web: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📱 On your phone (only iPhone): https://apps.apple.com/app/id6758757755
X On twitter @ SFM_Predicts
#football #prediction #forecasting #sportsanalytics #sfm #factormodels #alpha