Preview Mixed / Multi-league

SFM & SFMMO: Preview Friday

Friday, September 11, 2026

It’s Friday again, and that means, another weekend full of European club football ahead.

Last weekend was packed with notable match-ups, and upsets! Real Madrid lost to Betis, and PSG at home to Monaco. That was also a bit too much for our SFMMO! After two draws in the first two games, the SFMMO still saw that as a noisy start into the season. But the loss to Monaco was apparently too much, and the SFMMO cut its title probability for PSG from around 62% to 45% (!): https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/matches/ligue-1/season-odds.

This weekend will be a bit calmer in terms of blockbuster match-ups. Yet, a Manchester derby is still waiting, and also over in France and Italy, there are some interesting matches on the schedule!

So, let’s dive directly into the SFMMO’s and SFM’s projections — as always: shoutout to the fabulous modelling skills of Alexandre Andorra!

🥅 Preview – Matches

Manchester Unitedvs.Manchester City

A classic: Sunday afternoon, Old Trafford, Manchester derby. It will be the first big test of the season for both teams, and despite it being only game week 4, City is already 5 points ahead of their local rival.

United had a horrible start into the season as they lost 3:0 to Hull in their opening game. Since then, however, they have kind of recovered with a 5:2 win over Ipswich Town and a 2:2 draw at Everton, where the Red Devils conceded the equalizer in the 6th (!) minute of stoppage time.

City on the other hand, has so far underscored their ambitions, as they collected all 9 points in their first three games. This has by no means been a given, after the departure of star coach Pep Guardiola. Yet, his successor Enzo Maresca has defied some commentators’ expectations and seems to have orchestrated a rather smooth transition.

🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?

The SFMMO has the odds as undecided as it might get: United (39%) – City (35%). But these are only point estimates! The 90% credible region ranges from 35%-42% for United, and from 32%-38% for City.

The modal scoreline is projected to be 1-1with a 12.4% probability, followed by a 2-1 win for United with 8.6% and a 1-2 win for City with 8.1%.

Yet, overall, the point estimate stands: a slight edge for United – the home pitch factor doing its work.

🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?

United: Bruno Fernandes (33%), Bryan Mbeumo (31%); City: Erling Haaland (50%).

📣 SFM Outlook: United > City
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: United < City

Laziovs.AC Milan

It is THE surprise in the Serie A at the moment: the S.S. Lazio has won all of their first three games of the season. After their second-round elimination from the Italian Cup, the Coppa d’Italia, against second-tier Mantova 1911, Lazio’s new coach Gennaro Gattuso was already under pressure. But so far, the Laziali have been holding up with their local rival Roma and ruling Champion Inter, standing all with 9 points at the top of the table.

However, this weekend it will be Milan. For the Laziali and their coach this is not only the first real test of the season, but it is also the team for which Gattuso fought countless battles and became a legend far, far beyond the city walls of Milan.

The Rossonieri themselves have already stood their first big test, against Juventus, taking away a draw from Turin and standing at 7 points. With the arrival of former Manchester United Coach Ruben Amorim, and only one big key signing, Goncalo Ramos from PSG, many tifosi fear that this season might turn into a sort of transition period. But the results so far have not been disappointing.

🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?

Did I say the SFMMO is as undecided about United - City as it can get? Got already called out: Lazio (37%) – Milan (36%), with the 90% credible regions almost being identical: 33%-40% for a Laziali win vs 32%-39% for a Rossonieri win.

🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?

Lazio: Davide Frattesi (33%); Milan: Goncalo Ramos (22%).

📣 SFM Outlook: Lazio > Milan
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: Lazio < Milan

Paris FCvs.Olympique Lyon

When you hear Paris vs. Lyon being the match of the weekend in the Ligue 1, you’d say: obviously!

But then you want to enter Parc des Princes and realize that it is not PSG, but the smaller club across the street! Literally! Paris FC’s stadium, the Stade Jean-Bouin, is not more than 50 meters on the other side of the road.

More seriously though: it is Paris FC that currently stands at 7 points after 3 games, tied with their opponent OL, and 5 points ahead of French and European Champion PSG.

Just last weekend Paris FC demonstrated that they do not shy away from big names, with a 2:3 upset in Marseille over OM. Now, another big name is waiting.